Estimating Future TEFA Participation
Projecting future enrollment demand to inform fiscally responsible 2027 appropriations for the Texas Education Freedom Account program.
In July 2026, students accepted in the Texas Education Freedom Account (TEFA) program will begin using funds in their accounts. For years, the principals at Colyandro Public Affairs supported both policy development and program launch, and we’re encouraged by the family stories which are shedding light on the opportunities the program will provide. Detailed data from Texas Policy Research summarizes the students who applied and were accepted, based on transparent data published by the Comptroller’s team.
Our focus here is the question: how many Texas students will participate in the future?
The answer will be important in the 2027 appropriations process. At a minimum, SB 2 requires the Comptroller’s Legislative Appropriations Request (LAR) to specify the amount of money needed to fully fund participating and waitlisted children as well as their siblings. For this reason, lawmakers need accurate estimates of future TEFA participation.
3, CPA Associate Michael Barba was invited by Chairman Buckley to testify to the House Education Committee. At the time, lawmakers hadn’t yet decided on which Texas students would be eligible but they were considering universal eligibility. At the high end, Barba suggested that up to 288,000 students would seek to participate, based on the average year one take-up rate of 4.5% across the four universal (or nearly universal) existing choice programs in Arizona, Florida, New Hampshire, and West Virginia.
In the end, SB 2 offered universal eligibility to Texas families and 274,000 Texas students (4.2% of Texas’ 6.58m school age children) applied in 2026, just shy of the early 4-state average.
As of this summer, eleven states have launched universal or nearly universal education choice programs, or are on the verge of doing so. For these states, Figure 1 shows the participation rates measured as a percent of all school-age children (age 4-18) in their state. Figure 2 puts a finer point on it: the current year 1 take-up rate averages 5.14%, up slightly from three years ago.
If Texas’ first year take-up followed the current national average, we would’ve seen about 340,000 students in year one, 400,000 in year two and 500,000 in year three. However, our actual year one demand (4.2%) is about 80% of the current national average (5.14%). Given that, we estimate that 325,000 students would seek to participate in TEFA year two and 400,000 in year three.
Whether this number of applications materializes depends on smooth program implementation—especially trusted, fast, convenient, and secure payments—as well as support and outreach to Texas parents. Actual future TEFA participation will depend on state funding based on accurate estimates of family demand.
